Analysts Forecast Next Gen Won’t Outsell Current Gen – We Disagree

infopc | October 13, 2013 | Technology | No Comments

Analysts Forecast Next Gen Won’t Outsell Current Gen – We Disagree

ABI Research is a well known consumer research and market
intelligence company, they released a forecast that the next gen
consoles ie the PS4 and Xbox One will not outsell the predecessors.
Current Gen sales are somewhere around 140 Million Units (In First Five
Years) and Next Gen should sell 5% less than that according to ABI
Research. However we think that now after 3 months we can finally
disagree.

ABI Research: Next Gen (Xbox One, PS4, WiiU) wont Match Sales for Current Gen (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii) And Why We Disagree

First of all this is an extract from the report by ABI Research regarding Next Gen Sales:

“ABI Research expects cumulative shipments of 8th generation consoles from the big three to pass 133 million during the first 5 years on market, compared to nearly 140 million 7th generation consoles over the same length of time……….Without solid titles and first-party franchises,
platforms will have a difficult time finding traction. Streaming media
is not enough when low-cost STBs are readily available. While we don’t
anticipate a drop-off in game console households, barring significant
changes to less developed console markets in Asia and Latin America there isn’t a great deal of growth opportunity beyond the current installed base”

Simply put the Market Intelligence Analysts believe that because Next Gen lacks “solid titles” and “first party franchises” next gen will suffer. Also note that this statement was made after E3, meaning they know all about the console exclusives. However we have a feeling that Next Gen will outsell Current Gen. Heres why:

1. The Chinese Market Effect

Even though the report has listed this effect, it would appear that
they are terming it as a wild card. Another important thing is that at
the time of the report, the Chinese Market was NOT fully opened at that
time. The ban was fully lifted on 30 Sep. And even after accounting for
illegal console sales in China, this will be a major gamechanger.

2. Underestimating the power of Present Console Exclusives

The time of the report is 15 July which was immediately after the
reveal of console exclusives. However 2 days is hardly enough to
estimate console exclusive impact. If you take into account PS4
Exclusives like Deep Down and Xbox One Exclusives like Ryse and then if you dare look at the cult following they have amassed, you would be hard pressed to say there are no “solid titles”.

Next Gen Ryse - Cinematic 1 - jpg

3.Overestimating the Power of Mobile-Shift of Gamers

The report also lists the shifting of gamers/consumers towards mobile
devices, but from what we can see, the two aren’t mutually exclusive.
Ofcourse ABI Research forecasts by pure number crunching and not human
nature. Sometimes trends can be chaotic and in that case no amount of
numbers can forecast the outcome. Predicting the outcome of Next Gen is
something like that.

4. The Sheer Resilience (In a Good Way) of Console Fanatics Fans

Though this doesn’t really qualify as a logical counter to the ABI
premise, we are willing to bet that if the analysts over at ABI Research
had talked to the console gaming community they would have gone home
licking wounds and changed their forecast. The loyalty of console fans
to their console of choice even when the said console makes glaring
mistakes is admirable to say the least. This by the way is another
variable which is chaotic.

console fans